October 29, 2025

Propped up by big cap technology, Mag 7 and AI-related stocks, the major averages pushed further into record territory ahead of the Fed's announcement on rates in the afternoon. Nvidia (NVDA) did the heavy lifting, gaining +3.05%, and sending the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index to another record high. Also boosting equities was a trade deal announced with South Korea and hopes for a trade deal with China tonight. Earnings were mostly ahead of estimates with Verizon (VZ), Caterpillar (CAT), Teradyne (TER) and Booking Holdings (BKNG) surging on beats, but shares of Boeing (BA) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) struggled after disappointing. Economic data was soft with September Pending Home Sales unchanged vs. +1.0% expected, and -0.9% YoY. As expected, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates 0.25-point in the afternoon initially sending equities higher, but the different indexes retreated after Fed Chair Powell commented that a December rate cut 'was not a foregone conclusion-far from it'. Yields ticked higher on Powell's remarks with the 10-year Treasury closing at 4.072%, slightly higher than September when the Fed's first rate cut hit. Powell noted that the economy was growing at a moderate pace and inflation risks remained to the upside. Equities sold off into the close on weak underlying breadth but gains in the Mag 7 kept the NASDAQ positive and closing at a new all-time high. At the bell the DJIA was down 74.37 points (-0.16%) at 47632.00, while the S&P 500 eased 0.30 point (-0.00%) to 6890.59. The NASDAQ picked up 130.98 points (+0.55%) and settled at 23958.47.

Breadth was negative with declining issues beating advancing issues 2.4:1 on the NYSE and 2.2:1 on the NASDAQ. Declining volume was 60% on the NYSE and 57% of the NASDAQ. The VIX added 0.50 (+3.05%) and closed at 16.92. Crude oil prices rose 0.20 (+0.33%) and the December contract closed at $60.35 a barrel. Gold prices lost 21.30 (-0.55%) and finished at $3961.30 an ounce. Bitcoin (BTC) closed the session at $110,580.

Most stocks were lower today after Fed chair Powell threw cold water on more rate cuts. Investors have mostly priced in a December rate cut and we will have to see if the broader market can hang tough without more easing. Several Mag 7 stocks are reporting after the bell tonight and tomorrow and the major averages will trade higher or lower depending on whether they continue to raise guidance going forward. If the overweighted Mag 7 trade higher, the NASDAQ will keep posting new highs over the near-term. However, weak underlying breadth and a falling Advance/Decline line are sending up a red flag and could be setting the different indexes up for a pullback if the Mag 7 disappoint.

Earnings releases to watch for on Thursday include: Advance Auto parts (AAP), Altria (MO), Bristol Myers (BMY), Eli Lilly (LLY), Estee Lauder (EL), L3Harris (LHX), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Mastercard (MA), Vulcan Materials (VMC), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), LPL Financial (LPLA), Stryker (SYK) and Zillow (ZG).

Thursday's Market Moving Economic Calendar: Jobless Claims and GDP.

Comments or questions can be sent to:  support@marketetdge.com