June 13, 2025

Global stock markets opened lower on geopolitical concerns after Israel raided Iran's nuclear facilities overnight. Crude oil and gold surged as investors moved to safer assets. Defense stocks also rallied with shares of Lockheed Martin (LMX) and RTX Corp (RTX) jumping sharply higher. Economic data saw the NRF Retail Monitor report that consumer spending slowed in May. June Consumer Sentiment increased to 60.5 vs. 54 expected with the inflation outlook falling, but it went largely ignored. Stocks took another leg down in the afternoon on a retaliatory response by Iran sending the different indexes to the lows of the day. The selloff was almost across the board with only the Energy (XLE) sector closing positive while Financial (XLF), Technology (XLK), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB) and Communication Services fell more than -1%. The DJIA closed down 769.83 points (-1.79%) and settled at 42197.79, while the S&P 500 lost 68.29 points (-1.13%) finishing at 5976.97. The NASDAQ slipped 255.66 points (-1.30%) closing at 19406.83.

Breadth was negative with declining issues beating advancing issues better than 4:1 on the NYSE and the NASDAQ. Declining volume was 71% on the NYSE and 72% of the NASDAQ. The VIX jumped 2.80 (+15.54%) and closed at 20.82. Crude oil prices spiked 4.88 (+7.17%) and the July contract closed at $72.92 a barrel. Gold prices surged 51.30 (+1.51%) and finished at $3453.70 an ounce. Bitcoin (BTC) closed the session at $105,280.

The major averages were on track for a third consecutive weekly gain but Friday's selloff left the different indexes with modest losses as investors waited to see how the Israel/Iran conflict will play out over the weekend. There was also some deterioration in the technical condition of the market as the DJIA broke below support at its 200-day MA, and the small cap Russell 2000 slipped below its 100-day MA. All in all, the reaction from the major averages was muted and whether they can bounce back next week will depend on retaliatory responses over the weekend.

Earnings releases to watch for on Monday include: ReNew Energy Global (RNW), RF Industries (RFIL) and Lennar Corp (LEN).

Monday's Market Moving Economic Calendar: T-Bill Auctions and Empire State Manufacturing Index.

By David L. Blake, CMT