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Fed Rally Falls Flat

Daily Market Comment

March 20, 2025

The Fed inspired rally yesterday failed to provide a lift on Thursday, as investors remained uncertain about looming reciprocal tariffs.  The Volatility Index, VIX, toe-tapped around 20 before closing below that key level. In addition, several market sectors failed to breakout above key resistance levels. The DJIA lost 11.31 points (0.03%) settling at 41953.32. The S&P 500 finished lower by 12.40 points (-0.22%), closing at 5662.89 while the NASDAQ dropped 59.16 points (-0.33%) to close at 17691.63.   

Breadth was negative with declining issues beating advancing issues by 442 units on the NYSE and by a 9:5 ratio on the NASDAQ. Declining volume was 61% on the NYSE and 50% on the NASDAQ. VIX settled at 19.80. Crude oil gained $1.14 (1.70%), as the May contract closed at $68.30 a barrel. Gold added $11.80 (0.39%) and finished at $3053.00 an ounce.  

The absence of positive catalysts can be seen in weakness in the secondary indexes with the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) struggling below their respective 200-day moving averages. In addition, the small cap Russell 2000 Index, while improving technically, remains 6% below its 200-day MA and the 61.8% retracement level off the August-November rally.   

Earnings releases to watch on Friday include Carnival (CCL). Friday's Market Moving Economic Calendar: John Williams Speaks. 

By Richard Cuvilly 

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Market Recap - 03/20/2025

Index Close Day Change Day % Change YTD % Change
NASDAQ COMPOSITE 17691.63 -59.16 -0.33% -8.38%
DJ UTILITIES 1018.01 3.74 0.37% 3.59%
DJ TRANSPORT 14637.85 -54.07 -0.37% -7.91%
DJ INDUSTRIALS 41953.32 -11.31 -0.03% -1.39%
NYSE COMPOSITE 19537.27 -44.05 -0.22% 2.3%
S & P 100 INDEX 2738.2 -4.96 -0.18% -5.26%
RUSSELL 2000 2068.63 -13.45 -0.65% -7.24%
S&P 500 5662.89 -12.4 -0.22% -3.72%
CBOE MKT VOLATILITY 19.8 -0.1 -0.5% 14.12%
AMEX COMPOSITE 5145.5 27.11 0.53% 9.8%
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